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IT’S OFFICIAL!!! The United States is in a Recession!!!

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Ok, that was the headline that REUTERS used in explaining the US economic situation.

So the dow falls over 500, and all news from the US end of things resulted in the toilet, such as the Manufacturing Prices and Purchasing Manager Indexes. The Trinity of Speeches today, being held by “Uncle” Ben Bernanke, Hank, “the angry dwarf” Paulson, and some guy by the name of Fisher have all been a drone tone of uncertainty as the expected norm.

Uncle Ben has mentioned that another Rate cut is feasible, but I honestly think inevitable the way the banking industry is tanking. I will borrow a quote from a few fellow investment radio show hosts, and tell you “Bring your money to the smaller mom and pop banks at this point.” Smaller banks are more conservative with their money and never inflate a darn thing, so you can be sure your money is safe and secure.

In other news, Europe and England spelled a gloomy manufacturing index number, and retail sales in Germany are not looking so hot after a 1.6% decline.

England, on a good note, managed to keep Mortgage Approvals on an even keel! Amazing isn’t it?

Tonight we have a couple of major rate decisions to bank on in Australia and Japan. I am expecting a cut in these respective countries and both Central banks are having their days in the rain. Keep your eyes peeled on USDJPY and AUDUSD/AUDJPY as you will see some jumping around and a good breakout to profit the newstrader.

Charts and Graphs! Yes, we are going to discuss a couple of charts here, and

USDJPY: Currently showing a strong downtrend in the One hour chart, heading below a 95.45 resistance point and oscillating around 93.20, falling well below the 21 hour moving average. Due in part to the relatively bearish news of the US an their Manufacturing and grim shopping numbers from Black Friday. The ADX shows a strong 65 but is level, as is not heading anywhere as of right now. Keep your eyes peeled on news of the Interest Rates, and this shall dictate the direction of the USDJPY.

EURUSD: On the 30 minute charts, we are look at some oscillation in the 1.26/1.27 range, with the trend obviously heading downward from 1.2925 but starting to run sideways. The ADX is under 30, and has slightly warbled a few points here and there, showing no definite trend direction.

Trade On!

Tom Howell
GoForexTrade.com

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Japan Enters Recession - Automaker Rescue Probable?

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Today, is the day of reckoning for Japan’s economy. With the economy shrinking and companies shrinking budgets, profit outlook, and layoffs, Japan is now technically in a recession.

Japan’s Quarterly GDP contracted at -.1%, a sure sign that the economy is going in the opposite direction. The annual GDP shorted 1.6% from last year, but the economists had pinpointed it right on the nose. Tertiary Activity has also fallen .6% too.

So, not only the big news in Wall Street is not only the bailout fiasco with Hank Paulson, but also overwhelming concerns for the auto industry.

The Big Three are getting their asses handed every which way, and on the very reality that they might not be around much longer. Washington as of now is debating a $25 Billion care package to “save” the car industries, jobs, and anything else related to automobiles. Of course there isn’t any rescue package without conditions, and Washington would like to push the Big Three to start rolling out more efficient automobiles and also take care of immediate issues within. Possibility that CAFE standards will be interwoven into the rescue deal?

Well, let’s only hope for the best outcome, because of the multitudes of jobs that are on the line.

On news of this company and that organization laying off people left and right, we can safely say, that the US is in a recession, which probably could be cycled out within a year or two. The real possibility of the US falling into depression is what scares me.

George Soros, mentioned late last week that everybody is at high risk of falling into a depression. The problem with the depression issue, is that despite the government interventions, “new deals” and certain care packages that are issued, a depression can really rob some time from us.

The great depression started with Black Monday 79 years ago in 1929. The worst of the effects were not really felt until a few years later, and didn’t fully recover until a decade later in 1939, when Europe went to hell in a handbasket with World War II.

Let me fill you in on what you should know for Forex Market related news today:

For one, keep in mind that traders will keep heavily in mind the USDJPY and EURUSD. So far so good for the USDJPY, as there was a small upspike within the 96 yen range. Nothing though compared to widespread blowout that was experienced when the US Federal Budget Balance was an Epic Fail late last week.

The EURUSD will keep their eyes peeled on the Trade Balance announcement, which they expect a deficit of 5.7 Billion.

For the United States, Henry Paulson is going to blow the usual hot air and discuss the bailout in doomsday style commentary. Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, and Empire State Manufacturing will be the big news shots for the day.

Keep your chin up and Trade on!!!

Tom Howell
GoForexTrade.com

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Asian Markets - US GDP Declines, Oil Drops Like a Bad Habit!

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The day after the discount interest rate drops in the US Federal Reserve, The asian markets are starting the day off in the wrong foot. As of time of writing, the Nikkei 225 is at -318 and the other two markets are not open yet. A possible tell tale sign of this huge downshot every analyst is waxing about? hmmm….

A little while ago, The Japanese market news seemed to propel the trading sentiment. Looking at a decline in unemployment percentage, household spending, modest Consumer Price Indexes, a and a slightly down Manufacturing PMI could explain the whole situ.

Or it could be some profit taking before Japan’s Interest Rate decision, which analysts are looking at a quarter point, bringing the interest rate down to .25%.

Australia’s RBA will have some words from Dr. Guy DeBelle, the Reserve Bank’s Vice President. Private sector credit from previous month has increased .7%.

The US Markets had their day in the barrel. The economic barometer, the Gross Domestic Product, has shown a .3% decline from last quarter. Another quarter of negative production could technically classify us as being in a recession, if we didn’t know already.

Unemployment claims had remained the same around 479K jobless claims. Natural Gas Storage is at 46 Billion Cubes, well over the 41 Billion cube forecast.

Oh, and before I go, check out Oil! Oil drops nearly $5 to $64.90.

Folks, Have a good Asian Session and TRADE ON!!!

Asian Markets - The US Markets follow the global upspike

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Another high finisher for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Standards and Poors 500. A 889 point (10.88%) spike in the Dow to send it over 9,000 points surely shows that the market still has the fight in this recession.

The bullish activity on the markets was provoked by a previous european and asian session that had seen some hi percentage gains on news of a possible US Fed rate cut. This is amazing having such momentum in the markets despite Bearish housing data, Consumer Confidence, and Soggy Manufacturing numbers.

Oil has had a tumultuous day in the US markets, as the slick stuff fluctuates above $65 in intraday trading, but settles just under $65 for right now. More on crude in the European Market report.

Asian market index:
Being a few hours into the Asian market, New Zealand has taken a huge hit with a -1.183Billion NZD Trade Deficit.

Japan’s Preliminary Industrial Production monthlies have increase 1.2%, over the .5 forecast.

Sit tight and get ready for another Asian market session! See you in the european session

TRADE ON!!!

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Asian Markets October 28th 2008 Home Sales Up Crude Downward

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Today was quite a topsy-turvy type of day in the US markets.

The Dow jones was on a see saw of going down, then up 200 points, then finishing at 200 in the red, at 8,175. A day with lighter volume, marred by hardcore volatility, and selling off as fears of a global recession are still in the minds of many.

Despite the drops in the dow, home sales have increased to 464,000 which is over the 452K forecast.

The crude oil at first went up to $65, then slammed down to $62.46 with some analysts considering the possibility of seeing a bottom around $50 by the new year.

The euro responded weakly and dropped even further, touching 1.2365 before resurfacing slightly above 1.24. The yen on the dollar is stablizing around the 92 yen per dollar point.

For the asian markets:
Tonight, we will get numbers from Retail Sales in Japan around 2350 GMT. Australia will release their NAB quarterly business confidence index.

TRADE ON!!!
Tom Howell
GoForexTrade.com